You can be sure that Cortland hasn't forgotten about how it got tripped up at home in the fourth quarter last year by Susuquehanna. Cortland athletics photo by Darl Zehr Photography

Week 3 brings the beginning of conference play in a lot of places around the country. We're tracking huge conference openers in Iowa and Ohio. The defending champs head down to Pennsylvania to square off against the last team that beat them, and we'll also check in on a couple of conference challenges happening on Saturday. It's a big weekend across Division III and our experts back this week to set the table. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 22 Salisbury at No. 8 Johns Hopkins. There’s too many great games this week to miss this one in our GotW section. Salisbury has started this season on an absolute rocketship. The Sea Gulls have won big in their two opening games at home, leading the nation in yards at 632.5 per game. Johns Hopkins has won their first two games- both on the road-, with much more modest offensive outputs than their counterparts this week.  We’ll see on Saturday if Salisbury’s offense travels and if the Blue Jays finally playing in 2024 at Homewood Field unlocks their usual high-octane offense.
	Pateick's take: No. 2 Cortland at No. 11 Susquehanna. Another week with plenty of options, but the defending champs put their 14-game winning streak on the line against the last team to beat them. No other secondary plot is needed here.
	Frank's take: No. 2 Cortland at No. 11 Susquehanna. They’re likely both playoff teams. We know the result from last season. Both teams are well aware of what happened. Even with different personnel in some positions, this will be the rematch we’ve been waiting from since December.
	Logan's take: A few games that had major GotW potential have lost their luster already by Week 3, but one that's probably been circled on a few dorm room walls for a few months hasn't - No. 2 Cortland at No. 11 Susquehanna. Even beyond the "only team to beat the champs" storyline, I'm interested to see what Cortland can do against a Top 25 defense, and I'm interested to see how Susquehanna's defense holds up in their new defensive coordinator's most challenging early season test.
	Riley's take: No. 25 John Carroll at No. 4 Mount Union. This isn't the only matchup between two Top 25 teams in Week 3. But it is the only one involving conference rivals, and that elevates the importance of this game. It seems JCU is the only team in the OAC that can stand in Mount Union's path to the conference title, and of course, that's nothing new. Both teams enter this matchup coming off an open date, having had two full weeks to prepare for the OAC opener. We know how good Mount Union is defensively, and if JCU is going to contend, the offensive output needs to be far better than it was in the season-opening 34-7 loss to UW-Whitewater. Rivalry games have a way of pushing teams to new heights, and I expect that's what we'll see in Alliance on Saturday.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 10 Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets survived a last second field goal to knock off visiting Hobart one week ago.  While they survived, Randolph-Macon hasn’t recaptured the dominance that they rode to the semifinals in 2023. Berry is coming off of a stunning shutout home loss. The Viking offense is just too good to get shut down two weeks in a row.
	Patrick's take: No. 13 Wartburg. Tough week for the Knights to be facing Central, which hosts this game and knows that control of the ARC race is on the line.
	Frank's take: No. 13 Wartburg (at Central). After a long successful road trip to Cal Lutheran, the Dutch are back at home and facing a tough Wartburg team bruised from the Saint John’s debacle of last week. It’s clear that Wartburg in 2024 isn’t Wartburg in 2023 — and despite still having several weapons, the Knights need to get it back together again quickly. This is a huge opportunity for Central to get a marquee win.
	Logan's take: There are a lot of good games this week for Top 25 teams, but if I go strictly by my numbers, the two closest games are expected to be Berry at No. 10 Randolph-Macon (44% upset potential) and No. 13 Wartburg at Central (42%). I think Berry bounces back in a big way on the road, and pulls off the upset. It seems doubtful to me the Vikings suddenly forgot how to play offense, and Randolph-Macon showed some cracks last week against Hobart, gaining barely over 200 yards of total offense.
	Riley's take: No. 13 Wartburg. There's no doubt that Wartburg will be eager to avenge last week's loss at Saint John's, even more so considering it's the first game of ARC play and a rivalry contest. But Central has taken care of business thus far, overpowering Illinois Wesleyan and Cal Lutheran. The offense is clicking, led by QB Brady Ketchum, who has already surpassed 600 passing yards this season, and that'll be the key for Central. If the passing attack is strong, I think the Dutch have a chance to pull off the upset at home, especially against a Wartburg secondary that allowed over 300 yards through the air against both Monmouth and SJU. Central hasn't beaten Wartburg since 2021, but this could be the year that changes. In this series, neither team has beaten the other in three consecutive seasons since Wartburg did so in 2015...and Wartburg has won the last two.

What team will snap the longest losing streak this week?

	Greg's take: There are 10 streaks of 10 games or more, but every one of the  teams in the midst of double-digit slides have really, really tough matchups. Hartwick and Juniata face off this weekend and somebody is going to snap a 9-game streak there.  Juniata’s Hunter Wolfley has posted back-to-back 200-yard rushing games to open the season and leads the division in rushing yards. Three in a row won’t be out of the question and the Eagles get back in the win column.
	Patrick's take: Austin College, which has lost nine games in a row. The Roos will get a shot at Centenary, which hasn't won a game since reviving its program.
	Frank's take: Juniata (at Hartwick). The Hawks have just not had their swagger in quite some time. This is an excellent chance for Juniata to get some momentum as we get closer to in-conference play.
	Logan's take: I do not like the chances for any team with a losing streak of 10 games or more. Only Kean has more than about a 1-in-10 shot of a victory. The Hartwick/Juniata game is guaranteed one to 9 gamer, and the Austin/Centenary game has the potential to snap either a 9 game losing streak or a considerably longer winless streak. I know the SCAC coaches picked Centenary to finish ahead of Austin, but I think I have to go with the 'Roos on this one.
	Riley's take: Austin College. Tony Joe White has been working hard to rebuild AC's program since coming over from Birmingham-Southern, and is doing a good job there. But that sort of thing takes time. Facing Centenary on Saturday in the SCAC opener, this seems to be a perfect opportunity for the 'Roos to put the 0-2 start behind them, step up on defense, and get in the win column for the first time since Week 3 of last season.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Augustana at No. 18 Wheaton. Yeah, in a week this stacked, a team featuring a ranked team can be under the radar. Augustana pushed Wheaton last September. If the Vikings can get a win this year at McCully, the Vikings can start to envision a return to the playoffs. Wheaton has had an extra week to digest their Week 1 loss at UW-Oshkosh and need to win on Saturday to maintain any realistic hopes of qualifying for the postseason.
	Patrick's take: TCNJ at Muhlenberg. The Lions come in riding high at 2-0 after squeaking past Franklin & Marshall last week, and Muhlenberg cannot be caught licking its wounds from last week's loss to Salisbury.
	Frank's take: Washington & Lee at Trinity (Texas). It’s been a wobbly start for both teams so far, and this game is a chance for one of the teams to establish who they really are as we begin to head toward their respective conference schedules. The Trinity 45-point win vs. Belhaven was impressive after the team laid a bit of an egg vs. TLU in Week 1. I’m curious to see if the Tigers are building from that loss in a way that would make them the SAA favorites following Berry’s implosion vs. DePauw last week.
	Logan's take: This game only features a D-III team on one sideline, but I'm extremely interested to see the Lewis & Clark contest against Montana-Western (NAIA). Lewis & Clark is experiencing one of their most sustained runs of success in recent history, and a lot of that improvement has come on the offensive side of the ball, where the Pioneers have scored 83 points in their first two games and averaged over 35 a season ago. Their opponent also likes to score points, and my model thinks these teams should combine for over 90 points.
	Riley's take: Calvin at Anderson. In its first season of varsity football, Calvin is seeking its first road win after falling to Concordia (Wis.) last week, and the Knights have a good chance to do that Saturday. Interestingly, they share a common opponent, having both beaten Oberlin for their first victory of the season. With a Top 40 rushing attack in Division III, Calvin's offense has been effective, averaging 191.5 rushing yards/game, but the Knights are going up against an Anderson defense that allowed 9.5 points per game through the first two weeks and just 98.0 yards/game on the ground. That might end up being the matchup to watch in this MIAA-HCAC duel.

Who will win the NWC - SCIAC Challenge in Week 3 and how many games will that conference win?

	Greg's take: Maybe a slight upset here, but I’m picking the SCIAC to go 4-2 against the NWC, with Linfield and Whitworth defending their home turfs.
	Patrick's take: Northwest Conference wins, 4-2.
	Frank's take: It’s a tie! SCIAC winners will be Cal Lutheran, Pomona-Pitzer, and La Verne. NWC winners will be Linfield, Whitworth, and George Fox.
	Logan's take: Tied 3 apiece.
	Riley's take: The NWC at 4-2. Linfield and Whitworth will lead the way, with Pacific Lutheran and George Fox pushing the NWC to victory in a pair of close wins.

Will the HCAC match their season win total of two this week in the MIAA-HCAC Challenge?

	Greg's take: Despite having home field advantage in all seven games, I think the HCAC manages just one win this weekend and will not match their season win total of two.
	Patrick's take: No. Nor will they exceed it.
	Frank's take: One would Hope that the HCAC will be Trine hard to match that win total, and although if it happens, I’d say, “Olivet,” Albion my best behavior here to say, “Yo, Adrian, the MIAA will win from here to Kalamazoo, going 6-1 on the day!” Now back to reading Calvin & Hobbes in my newspaper.
	Logan's take: Yes, but no more than two.
	Riley's take: Yes. They'll match it, but not exceed it, with Mount St. Joseph and Hanover giving the HCAC exactly two victories on the week.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!