The Conestoga Wagon went home with Dickinson last fall after an epic fourth quarter against rival Frankin & Marshall. Dickinson athletics file photo

The Division III season has reached October and conference play kicks off in two of the division's best conferences. Saturday marks the first of many big weekends in the WIAC, featuring a pair of games between Top 25 teams, while the Centennial Conference also gets underway with some Friday night lights. If rivalry games are your thing, the first weekend of October has you covered like the Conestoga Wagon. The Sixth Street rivals won't need a Wagon — Claremont-Mudd-Scripps will just walk down the street to defend their trophy. Our panel is back this week to talk about all of that and more in this week's edition of Quick Hits.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 12 Endicott at No. 7 Hardin-Simmons. It probably would have been awkward if I didn’t pick this game after featuring it in Around The Nation. The Cowboys have a new look offense led by quarterback Kyle Brown. Endicott brings an experienced squad with names that have become familiar. Quarterback Clayton Marengi, receiver Shane Aylward, and defensive end Hector Johnson are on a mission to push Endicott to greater heights. Non-conference play concludes in earnest this weekend, and this interregional game is a great coda to what has been an exciting season of non-conference games.
	Pateick's take: No. 12 Endicott at No. 7 Hardin-Simmons. I mean, it has to be a closer game than last year. Endicott can flip the poll with a win and put "beating a Top 10 team on the road" on its resume.
	Frank's take: No. 17 UW-Oshkosh at No. 11 UW-Whitewater. It was an odd set of starts for these two teams, with UWO taking some risks and coming out successful in the process, but with UWW getting essentially blown out by a then-“unranked” UMHB squad. A UWW loss would create issues potentially for the Warhawks for Pool C with two losses — they’d need to play perfect ball to avoid a 7-3 season and a potential expanded playoffs miss.
	Logan's take: No. 24 UW-Platteville at No.3 UW-La Crosse. The Pioneers have quietly put together a very nice start to the season, which has gone under the radar with other WIAC schools playing multiple games against Top 25 schools, D-II schools, or Top 25 D-II schools (hello, La Crosse). They're one of only five schools at this point in the season that has graded out as "Elite" in each of their games, and they rank in the Top 10 of my opponent-adjusted margin of victory. I still like La Crosse to win, but this will be a competitive game.
	Riley's take: No. 12 Endicott at No. 7 Hardin-Simmons. I'd be hard-pressed to think of a bigger regular season game in Shelton Stadium history that didn't involve two conference opponents. Endicott makes the long trip to Abilene, Texas with a perfect 4-0 record, two of which have come against quality opponents in Ithaca and RPI. HSU hasn't been tested in the same way — all 3 wins have come by 30-plus point margins — but the Cowboys also haven't given us much of a reason to question their No. 7 ranking. They've looked dominant so far, especially defensively, creating an intriguing matchup between an Endicott offense averaging 229.5 passing yards/game against an HSU defense giving up just 216.3 total yards/game.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: If we’re taking the Top 25 WIAC games off the board, everything else is very fringe. The one team playing on the road is No. 25 Randolph-Macon. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been their 2023 semifinal selves so far in 2024. Shenandoah is off to a 3-0 start and have their best chance to beat Randolph-Macon since the Hayden Bauserman era.
	Patrick's take: No. 21 Johns Hopkins. Rowan has been inconsistent, to be sure, but so has Johns Hopkins.
	Frank's take: No. 25 Randolph-Macon (at Shenandoah). This game reminds me of the Hope/Alma game with the two teams’ trajectories coming into it. RMC is struggling against good teams, and Shenandoah is surging against lower-end teams for the most part. However, that momentum for Shenandoah is meaningful and gives the Hornets an edge here.
	Logan's take: My model thinks there are only three games featuring Top 25 teams where the underdog has at least a 25% chance: UWL/UWP (29%), UWW/UWO (28%), and Salisbury/Christopher Newport (25%). There's about a 40% chance all of the favorites win those games, but I'm still going with the Pat Coleman Special: none.
	Riley's take: No. 25 Randolph Macon. I was tempted to pick "none" this week, but I'll take Shenandoah to pull off an upset over RMC in the opening week of ODAC play. There's no doubt that RMC is fired up, having had two weeks to prepare for this one after a disappointing loss to Berry. But Shenandoah is 3-0 and playing at home, which gives the Hornets a chance. Here's the thing: RMC's defense has allowed an average of four red zone trips per game, including five against Berry and three in a narrow overtime win over Hobart. While the Hornets have faced a lower caliber of competition, Shenandoah is a perfect 10-of-10 with nine TDs when inside the opponent's 20-yard line. If Shenandoah's offense capitalizes on those opportunities on Saturday, there is definitely a path to an upset in the ODAC.

Of the top 5 rushing defenses, which one will give up the most rush yards in Week 5?

	Greg's take: Wittenberg. Denison’s Trey Fabrocini is a workhorse back that has eclipsed 100 yards in each of his last three games. I like the fifth year senior to have a big game against the Tigers this weekend.
	Patrick's take: Bethel. I'm loving what we've seen from Gustavus freshman running back De'Marion Brown and will think that the Gusties should at least be able to run for a few yards.
	Frank's take: Ursinus (at Muhlenberg). I’m not saying Muhlenberg wins this game necessarily, but it’s clear to me the Mules will need to use the run to open things up offensively. With the offensive line doing an overall good job this season, I think they’ll help the home-standing team get 100-plus yards on the ground.
	Logan's take: Ursinus (@ Muhlenberg).
	Riley's take: Ursinus. Muhlenberg's run game has been stellar this season, averaging 212.7 yards/game on the ground, and seemed to take a step forward against TCNJ, with 254 yards and five scores. Can they carry that into this conference duel? I think so. Not only do the Mules have a consistent RB in Amari Dunn, but they also have a dual-threat QB in Joe Repetti, who's been known to scramble and run upfield from time to time.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Bates at Colby. It’s the first leg of the C-B-B series that determines a champion of the Colby-Bates-Bowdoin consortium. Colby has won the last five meetings in this series, but Bates has just snapped a long losing streak while the Mules have yet to break through into the win column in 2024.
	Patrick's take: Guilford at Hampden-Sydney. It's the other 3-0 vs. 2-1 game in the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, assuming that the Shenandoah/Randolph-Macon is listed above. Guilford has skated to an unbeaten start but Hampden-Sydney has played the tougher schedule.
	Frank's take: Illinois College at Monmouth. After IC’s loss to Lake Forest, this game holds huge implications. If IC defeats Monmouth, the MWC could come down to a potential three-way tiebreaker again later (with the Foresters still to play Monmouth in Week 10). A win by Monmouth likely knocks out the defending Pool A participants from last year from any real playoff hopes.
	Logan's take: RPI at Rochester. Rochester has made it to 4-0 for the first time since 2000, but they've done it against a relatively weak schedule when you compare it to RPI's 2-2 start, with losses to UW-La Crosse and Endicott. The best opponent Rochester has played thus far is Salve Regina, who ranks 117th in my predictive ratings, while RPI is firmly in the Top 50. How far can confidence carry the Yellowjackets? Maybe not to victory, but this will stay closer than expected.
	Riley's take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps at Pomona-Pitzer. You can't go wrong when it comes to a rivalry showdown. Especially the Sixth Street Rivalry. No two programs in the country are located as close together as C-M-S and Pomona-Pitzer are, with the stadiums separated by just a quarter of a mile in Claremont, California. After two seasons of this game being contested in November, we see the Stags and Sagehens meet in just the second week of the SCIAC schedule, each having won their conference opener. On paper, C-M-S is the favorite here, but you never know in a rivalry matchup like this one.

Pick the three winners in games between 0-3 teams.

	Greg's take: Northwestern should be able to get by Crown comfortably. La Verne put together a frisky second half against Pomona-Pitzer last week and with Redlands' mighty struggles so far this year, I’ll take the Leopards to notch their first win in the series with Redlands since 2015. Lawrence holds the longest active losing streak in Division III at 25 games and I think it ends there with the Vikings getting back in the win column against Grinnell.
	Patrick's take: Northwestern, Lawrence, La Verne. Hard to pick against Redlands but at least La Verne has been scoring some points this season.
	Frank's take: Northwestern (better scheduling overall means they’re likely more ready for this game); Lawrence (Beloit beating Grinnell is a bad sign, giving Lawrence an edge for me here); Redlands (giving the edge to the home team with a certain level of tradition of winning over the last decade, although Redlands is a definite disappointment of late).
	Logan's take:  Crown at Northwestern  Grinnell at Lawrence La Verne at Redlands
	Riley's take: Crown at Northwestern Grinnell at Lawrence La Verne at Redlands

Which Centennial Conference game will be the closest?

	Greg's take: Last year the Battle for the Conestoga Wagon was decided on the last play of the game. Give me the rivalry game between Dickinson and Franklin & Marshall as the closest of the three games that kick off Centennial Conference play this weekend.
	Patrick's take: Ursinus at Muhlenberg. I guess. I am concerned because this game will be higher scoring than some of the others, and sometimes that leads to larger margins, but I don't know how close the other games will be.
	Frank's take: Ursinus at Muhlenberg. I expect a high-scoring affair here that comes down potentially to an extra point or conversion separation.
	Logan's take: Just for fun, I'll try to rank them all in order, from closest to least: Ursinus at Muhlenberg Dickinson at F&M McDaniel at Gettysburg
	Riley's take: Ursinus at Muhlenberg. This has the makings of being an offensive shootout, with both teams trading scores from start to finish. Don't be surprised if this one is decided in overtime.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!