You can be assured of two things in this MIAC rematch: Bethel and St. John's still have their eyes on the prize, and the leaves on trees in the background will not be green the way they were in September. Photo by Caleb Williams, d3photography.com

We made it! The final week of the regular season brings conference championship games, rivalries, trophies, and Senior Days. It also brings us to the cusp of our first algorithm-selected tournament field. By the end of Saturday’s games, we will know which 40 teams will have qualified for the NCAA playoffs. Three teams from the same conference have qualified for the same tournament just twice in the AQ era (1999-present)- 2024 alone could double or exceed those occurrences. Our panel is back to break down Week 11's title games, rivalry games, and all of the action that gets you ready for Selection Sunday!

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 24 Bethel at No. 3 St. John’s. Bethel may be the hottest team in the division behind a suffocating defense and an offense that has exploded in the last two months. The Johnnies won the September matchup between these two 45-20, but recent comparative results against Concordia-Moorhead suggest the gap between these teams has narrowed. Both of these teams are very likely to continue playing into the NCAA tournament, but this game has a late round feel to it in the regular season finale.
	Pateick's take: No. 17 Linfield at No. 16 Whitworth. There's a lot riding on this game, but slightly more for Linfield, which really needs the win to make sure it gets into the playoffs. Whitworth can survive a loss. But it will want to do so without some of the defensive lapses that plagued them in October.
	Frank's take: Wabash at No. 9 DePauw. It’s not only a major rivalry game, but it’s a game that could cost another bubble team a bid. A loss by Wabash would drive their NPI score potentially below 63 points, which could be disaster for any Pool C hopes. A win by Wabash gives the Little Giants the Pool A bid and virtually guarantees DePauw a Pool C bid with an NPI likely above 66. If you’re a team on the bubble, I’d be rooting for DePauw to potentially help make some space in Pool C for you.
	Logan's take: I have a little pet metric I call Game Score, meant to measure how competitive a game should be, and the quality of the teams playing in that game. The MIAC Championship game between No. 3 St. John's and No. 24 Bethel has the highest Game Score of at least the last two seasons. Both teams are playing their best football right now, ranking as the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in my predictive ratings. This will be a completely different contest from their game in September. In their last 6 games, Bethel has three shutouts, has only allowed 5.2 ppg, and they rank in the Top 5 in total scoring offensively.
	Riley's take: No. 17 Linfield at No. 16 Whitworth. It's not often that the NWC ends up in this category, but this week's premier West Coast matchup certainly deserves this kind of recognition. If you think back on last year, Linfield, at 8-0, hosted Whitworth, a team that had beaten them just once since 2008. But the Pirates pulled off the upset, and it was Whitworth, not Linfield, who represented the NWC in the postseason. A year later, Linfield heads to Spokane with an opportunity to return the favor and spoil Whitworth's attempt at an undefeated regular season. Playoff spots aren't necessarily on the line here in a cut-and-dry scenario (both should get in), but the NWC title is. Whitworth's passing attack, led by QB Ryan Blair, is averaging a NWC-best 9.1 yards/attempt, but goes up against a Linfield defense that leads the league in sacks (33) and has allowed just 176.4 passing yards/game. That's the matchup I'll be watching within this highly-anticipated NWC duel.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 22 Marietta. The Pioneers could not have drawn a more challenging final two weeks in the OAC with road games to Mount Union and to John Carroll. Benchmarking their games against Mount Union, both teams pushed the Purple Raiders to the brink before ultimately falling. Since dropping games at Whitewater and Mount Union, John Carroll has been on a dominant 7 game win streak. Will the Pioneers have enough left in the tank after last week’s thriller in Alliance?
	Patrick's take: No. 13 Carnegie Mellon. All throughout my trip to western Pennsylvania last month, people were telling me Case Western Reserve was for real, and this is their last chance to prove it. Case also has the Academic Bowl rivalry to play for, which has been played every year since 1986 and might not survive Carnegie Mellon's move to the Centennial Conference.
	Frank's take: No. 22 Marietta (at John Carroll). In a topsy-turvy OAC season, why not end with a real bang — a game that could eliminate ANY Pool C bid for the conference. Marietta might be due for a let-down game after the close call at Mount Union, while JCU knows their only hope for the playoffs is to win this game at home (and even that might not be enough with a potential NPI score of 63.0 depending on other teams’ performances). Yet, I think the Blue Streaks will make the most of the opportunity to potentially play their way into the playoffs.
	Logan's take: Like last week, there are several competitive games among Top 25 teams, with Hardin-Simmons, UW-Plateville, Grove City, Carnegie Mellon, and Brockport all having around 70%-80% win probabilities, but I actually think two Top 25 teams are outright underdogs this week, with John Carroll a slight favorite over No. 22 Marietta and UW-River Falls a slightly larger favorite over No. 19 UW-Oshkosh. UWRF is still banged up at a lot of important positions on offense, but who isn't in Week 11? They Falcons managed a win and 40 points against the same UW-Stout team that just beat Oshkosh a week ago.
	Riley's take: No. 8 UW-Platteville (at UW-Stout). Stout has emerged as one of the more underrated teams in the country this year, in my opinion. Their record, at 6-3, doesn't really jump out. But when you look at the wins over Whitewater and Oshkosh, the three-point loss to River Falls, and the two-point loss to La Crosse, the perception changes a bit. This is a team that knows how to keep pace with Top 10-caliber teams and in a de facto playoff game at home, needing to win to extend its season by one more week, Stout is going to show up. The question will be how Platteville handles the environment in Menomonie. I'm leaning towards Stout in this scenario, and not just because the Blue Devils are at home. They have zero to lose and everything to gain as the unranked underdog in a drama-filled matchup. Give me Stout to win and take the WIAC title.

Who will be the highest ranked team (Top 25) to miss the tournament?

	Greg's take: No. 25 Brockport.  Brockport increasingly appears to be on the bad end of NPI- the end that is completely dispassionate about a team’s results against strong opponents. The answer could be none if Springfield makes up the five points they need to displace Brockport in the poll. But let’s take a moment to remember- last year six ranked teams did not make the playoffs.  Three years ago a top 10 ranked team did not make the playoffs.  The 40-team field has obliterated those phenomena, and for that we can be grateful.
	Patrick's take: Well, I guess I played it out in the previous question, but assuming that it's current ranking, then I think I have to stay with Carnegie Mellon, who is ranked No. 13 entering Saturday.
	Frank's take: If we’re talking about CURRENT rankings, then Linfield MAY miss with a loss, with a projected NPI Score that could fall just below 63 if other opponents they’ve played lose. If we’re talking about rankings in our final poll after the wins and losses are considered, I would say Brockport.
	Logan's take: The only Top 25 teams with much of a chance to miss the tournament - and stay ranked if they fall out of Pool C contention - are UWL, Wheaton, and Brockport. UWRF could also miss the field with a win against UWO, but I'm not sure how high they would climb. Of those first three, I think the first two, especially UWL, are fairly safe bets to make the field, so my bet is No. 25 Brockport.
	Riley's take: No. 25 Brockport. With the expanded playoff field, I expect most of the Top 25 will be in. But Brockport, even with an 8-2 record and the narrow losses to Cortland and Susquehanna, is going to have trouble getting into the top 12 for an at-large bid. And that's really tough considering what we saw from the Golden Eagles just last week. There's a slight chance they do get in, but more than likely, Brockport won't be in the 40-team field.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: University of New England at Husson. One of my favorite trophy games is also one of the newest and Saturday marks the fourth battle between these two Maine school for the Lobster Trap. Husson has won the first three Trap games, and will be favored to win a fourth on home turf. UNE enters the weekend with just three wins, their lowest total since their inaugural season in 2018, but leaving the Winkin Complex with the Lobster Trap would put a whole new perspective on this season.
	Patrick's take: Southwestern at Texas Lutheran. This shouldn't be too far under the radar, obviously, since it's TLU playing for a playoff spot, but Southwestern has had a pretty good season in its first season under Bill Kriesel, who only took over in July.
	Frank's take: North Park at No. 23 Wheaton. There’s definite disagreement about Wheaton’s Pool C chances for the playoffs with a win this week, but they need to win this game. North Park has had several highs and lows this year, but the Vikings could be ready to challenge a Wheaton team that has felt somewhat inconsistent this year by Thunder standards. I’m curious to see which Wheaton team shows up and if North Park can keep it close.
	Logan's take: In the Landmark, there are three teams who have clinched the opportunity to play in the postseason - Susquehanna is going to the playoffs, but Wilkes and Moravian have also clinched their spots in the Chesapeake Bowl Challenge against representatives from the ODAC. Moravian has their first winning season since 2015 under coach Jeff Long, but Wilkes continues to look like the next best team in the Landmark behind Susquehanna.
	Riley's take: Martin Luther at Minnesota Morris. Remember how the first meeting of the season between these two unfolded? In a tied game, Martin Luther intercepted a pass with 1:51 left, leading to a game-winning drive that ended with just five seconds on the clock in front of their home crowd. That finish alone should set the stage for a great sequel. Minnesota Morris is at home, aiming to finish above .500 in UMAC play for the fourth straight season (the Cougars enter 3-3). Martin Luther, meanwhile, has put together a huge turnaround, entering Saturday with a chance at their first seven-win season since 2019 after going just 2-8 last fall.

How many conferences will get three teams into the tournament?

	Greg's take: Two. I think the PAC and the WIAC will each place three teams in the tournament while the SAA just misses sending a trifecta.
	Patrick's take: ... and that upset pick affects this question as well! I am not hedging my bets, folks. So I'm going with two.
	Frank's take: Three. The WIAC, the PAC, and the SAA (since I believe Trinity will be right around the cut line with a win).
	Logan's take: The PAC has about a 50-50 shot of getting all three teams in, with CMU and GCC each having tough matchups, while the SAA is more like 85%, and the WIAC could have as many as four. I think two of these conference get three bids.
	Riley's take: Two. I think the PAC is a surefire pick here -- Carnegie Mellon, Grove City, and W&J are fairly close to being locks. The body of work of all three this season certainly warrants two at-large bids to the pair of teams that don't get the AQ. I feel really confident about the WIAC getting three teams in as well. In fact, I can't say I'll be shocked if four WIAC teams are in the playoff field, which is a legitimate possibility.

Of the three conference championships that are all rematches, which will produce the largest change in differential from the first meeting?

	Greg's take: Bethel peeling off a huge a chunk of that 25-point deficit seems likely, but I’m going to look at the ECFC championship game for my biggest point swing. Alfred State lost by 12 earlier this season to Anna Maria and I’m looking for the Pioneers to flip the script and finish the ECFC as a two-time champion.
	Patrick's take: I think the same three teams all win again, but the MIAC Championship game has the greatest potential to be closer, so I'll go there.
	Frank's take: Chapman has been playing better ball of late since their loss to the Sagehens, so I give them the edge in this game by two touchdowns.
	Logan's take: I think Chapman gets revenge, but it'll still be a close game, and I expect the ECFC game to play out similar to the first time. But I think Bethel has found a completely different gear since their early season matchup with SJU. The MIAC championship feels like the easy pick.
	Riley's take: Bethel at St. John's. This is a much improved Bethel team from the first meeting in September that saw the Royals fall behind 21-7 and never recover. Bethel has shut out three of its last six opponents, and the defensive aspect is going to be key in keeping them in this. The SJU offense is explosive as was seen by the Johnnies' 45-point performance last time around. I expect Bethel's defense to keep SJU more in check, and score a few more points of their own.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!