The KILT Style of Alma football makes a much-anticipated trip to UW-River Falls on Saturday for a battle of two of Division III's top quarterbacks. Alma athletics file photo

Welcome to another season of Quick Hits! Each week we'll convene a panel of Division III football experts to offer fast takes on the weekend ahead — which games matter most, which ranked teams might be nervous, and which matchups deserve your attention even if they're off the Top 25 radar. Week 1 is all about new beginnings! This week we've got our eyes on head coaches making their debuts, the PAC coming back to non-conference play, and fans everywhere getting their first live look at the 2025 season. 

Our panel is back with some familiar faces and a couple of new ones. Patrick Coleman and Greg Thomas are back, of course. Also returning to the panel are Logan Hansen, creator of Hansen Ratings and frequent analytics contributor, along with Riley Zayas, founder of TrueToTheCru.com. Joining us for the first time this year are Carlo Guadagnino, creator and host of the Dingo Talk podcast, and Kobe Manzo, founder of D1 Rejects. Six panelists, six questions, and a brand new season. Let's get on with the Hits! 

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: Plenty of big games this week, but it has to be No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union. The quarterback experience edge tilts heavily toward Wheaton as Mark Forcucci returns following a very efficient 2024- and he’ll have some big targets at his disposal. Mount Union will debut the much heralded Mikey Maloney behind center. Mount Union also brings two of the best lineman in the nation to this game- Giovanni Kennedy may be the best offensive lineman in the division this year, while Kaleb Brown has the potential to win a lot of DPOY awards this year. This is a late round quality matchup in Week 1, and we’re here for it.
	Patrick's take: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union. This is a game of the week, first off, because of the novelty of it, with the teams facing off in a regular season game after six playoff meetings, all of which were won by Mount Union. I don't expect upset here, just a good challenge in both directions. What better way for Wheaton to prep for the type of talent they might see in the Little Brass Bell game than by playing the team that lost to North Central in the Stagg Bowl last year?
	Logan's take: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union. Mount Union typically wins their Week 1 games by around 50 points. I expect this to be considerably closer. Wheaton returns their QB and my pick for defensive POTY, Peter Johanik. But they lost Gio Weeks and almost all of their receivers and secondary. Mount Union lost even more, especially on defense, but their QB of the future, Mikey Maloney, is healthy and their OL is anchored by potentially the best lineman in the country, Giovanni Kennedy.
	Riley's take: No. 17 Wheaton at No. 2 Mount Union. It’s been a while since we’ve seen Mount Union open its season against an opponent of Wheaton’s caliber, considering the last time the Purple Raiders’ Week 1 opponent went .500 the season prior was 2021. I expect a more aggressive Mount Union gameplan than we’ve seen in recent season openers, but exactly how that looks with new starting quarterback Mikey Maloney in the mix remains to be seen. Unlike Mount, Wheaton was in this same position just last year, opening its 2024 campaign on the road at UW-Oshkosh. The Thunder came up short in that 21-14 contest, and it played a role in Wheaton being left out of the playoffs for the first time since 2018. There’s not much more motivation than that to avoid repeating history in the opener, but Mount hasn’t lost a regular season home game since 2016. Can Wheaton snap that streak? We’ll find out Saturday afternoon.
	Carlo's take: Alma at No. 19 UW-River Falls. Best 2 QBs in D3 Blaha v St.John in D3 open the season! With high-powered offenses and hard nose defense on both sides, last year’s battle set the stage for an even better clash this year.
	Kobe's take: Alma at No. 19 UW-River Falls. Preseason All-American 1st-Team vs 2nd-Team QBs with some damn good supporting casts.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 16 Linfield. Avoiding matchups between top 25 teams where any result wouldn’t be surprising to me, I’ll pick UW-Oshkosh as the team with the best chance to knock out a Top 25 team. The Titans did take out Linfield one year ago and WIAC teams can never be counted out in high level games.
	Patrick's take: No. 16 Linfield. My unwritten rule, that is now written down, is that I don't take games between two Top 25 teams, although there are some nice possibilities there as well. UW-Oshkosh certainly has the talent to do it, but the question is how everyone hits the ground running this season, in a year where there is so much up in the air. In this case, it includes Oshkosh, Wisconsin, to McMinnville, Oregon.
	Logan's take: Cortland (58.2% win probability vs. Grove City) and Mount Union (64.3% vs. Wheaton) have the closest projections, but I like to challenge myself with unranked upsets, so I'm going to go with No. 16 Linfield (68.0% vs. UW-Oshkosh). It feels strange to call this an upset, since UWO won last year's matchup at home, but that's what the voters think. Like Mount Union, Linfield has among the least returning production of any team in the country, while UWO returns quality starters across the board.
	Riley's take: No. 7 Salisbury (at Washington and Lee). This is triple-option vs. triple-option, and both offenses return a number of key pieces. W&L QB Ty Collins is a true dual-threat, and has a passing skill set that makes the Generals dangerous through the air, even as a run-heavy offense. Salisbury returns a pair of top defensive backs, but graduated a few of its biggest contributors on the defensive line. To me, this comes down to the W&L offense vs. the Salisbury defense. In last season’s meeting, W&L sputtered out of the gate, and never recovered. If the Generals fix that, and Collins finds a few open receivers early, they just might beat Salisbury for the first time in program history.
	Carlo's take: No. 10 Cortland by No. 23 Grove City. With a new head coach and QB at Cortland, GCC are primed to make an early statement on the road!
	Kobe's take: No. 10 Cortland by No. 23 Grove City. Two Top 25 teams but still technically an "upset", and I'm all in on this Grove City team proving recent history is not a flash in the pan, the Wolverines are here to stay.

The PAC is back to non-conference action after two years of isolation- how many wins do they collect this week?

	Greg's take: Four wins. There are some tough matchups here for the PAC and the road schedule is pretty challenging.  I’ll go with Westminster, Grove City, W&J, and St. Vincent to score wins for the PAC in their return to non-conference play.
	Patrick's take: I'll go with six wins, which means I'm hoping one underdog pulls one out.
	Logan's take:  Five wins. Here's what my model has for winning expectancy for each team: Washington & Jefferson 91% St. Vincent 84% Case Western Reserve 68% Westminster 64% Geneva 57% Grove City 42% Bethany 31% Thiel 17% Allegheny 4% Waynesburg 1% Hiram 0%
	Riley's take: Five. Westminster beats Marietta on Thursday to put the PAC in the win column and Grove City adds to the Week 1 success with a Top 10 road win at Cortland. As the afternoon goes on, Washington & Jefferson (vs. Utica), Case Western Reserve (at Rowan), and St. Vincent (vs. Hilbert) will round out the PAC’s Week 1 winners.
	Carlo's take: 7 wins. I think W&J, GCC, Westminster, Case Western Reserve, Geneva, St. Vincent, and Bethany start the season 1-0.
	Kobe's take: Six wins. The bottom half of the PAC hasn't given me confidence they can compete at a high enough level for me to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Wabash at St. Norbert. St. Norbert fell 31-0 in Crawfordsville last season on their way to an 0-3 start, but the Green Knights rallied to win their final eight games of 2024, including a Lakefront Bowl win over Monmouth. For Wabash, Jake Gilbert makes his regular season head coaching debut and will try to duplicate that shutout his defense pitched in last year’s opener.
	Patrick's take: RPI at WPI. Greg and I are always suckers for a cool rivalry story and trophy and the Transit Trophy is one of them. It's not about what kind of bus or train one might take from Troy, New York, to Worcester, Massachusetts — a transit is a tool used in surveying, which speaks to these two schools and their engineering focus. (You know, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and Worcester Polytechnic Institute.)
	Logan's take: Augustana at Simpson. In the ARC, it's been a long while since someone other than Wartburg, Coe, Central, or Dubuque has had any impact on the conference title race. Simpson has a chance to change that in 2025. The Storm finished 5-5 a year ago, but lost to Augie and the four aforementioned ARC contenders. If they can get a W on Saturday, that will be a signal they're on the right trajectory. If Augie can improve on last season's 30-13 result, that could indicate that they're back on 2023's Isthmus Bowl trajectory after a rebuilding season in 2024.
	Riley's take: Millsaps at Belhaven, better known as the “Riverside Rumble.” The intensity is always high when these crosstown rivals meet in Week 1. Both went 5-5 in 2024, though the context is important here. For Millsaps it was a four-win improvement, while Belhaven won four fewer games than it had in 2023. On Thursday, I am looking to see if Belhaven’s offense has taken a step forward and if Millsaps is on pace to continue its upward trajectory. You can learn a lot about two teams in a rivalry atmosphere.
	Carlo's take: Marietta at Westminster.  The rematch of the Extra Points Bowl. W&J v Utica will also be on the watch list, two great coaches going at it there!
	Kobe's take: Claremont-Mudd-Scripps vs Lake Forest. How does C-M-S perform against a closely-removed playoff team in Lake Forest after losing Justin Edwards at RB/Bell-Cow?

Which head coaching debut has your attention this week?

	Greg's take: I’ve mentioned one head coaching debut that I’ll have my eye on above, but here’s one more- Casey Shine at Chapman steps into an interim HC role following this summer’s retirement of longtime Panther head coach Bob Owens. Shine’s first assignment? How about hosting No. 6 Hardin-Simmons. It’s a big task on Saturday night, but should help gauge how close Chapman might be to finding some of their 2019 magic.
	Patrick's take: This game isn't below the radar at all, but I'll throw in Cortland and new head coach Tom Blumenauer hosting Grove City. This is huge in any context, but add in the bonus of a new head coach taking over at a recent national champion and you've got a game to definitely keep eyes on.
	Logan's take: Brett Elliot - Lewis & Clark.The Pioneers at Lewis & Clark do not have a rich history of football success. Brett Elliot does. The all-time great Wildcat quarterback who led Linfield to their 2004 national title has returned to his childhood hometown to coach Lewis & Clark. While they may not have a rich history, Coach Elliott is in probably the best position to succeed of any recent HC hire they've made. If they put up a crooked number against Puget Sound, more good things may be in the future.
	Riley's take: Illinois Wesleyan’s Jared Williamson. Williamson—who was IWU’s offensive coordinator during the Titans’ 2009 CCIW title season—took over in Bloomington just after New Year’s Day, which makes me optimistic about the program’s momentum heading into Saturday’s home opener against Central. He had the entire spring to begin making the program his own, and considering his offensive expertise, there’s reason to believe the Titans have taken a step forward on that side of the ball. Make no mistake, Central is a high-caliber opponent, but I think Williamson’s Titans have a real chance to make headlines this weekend.
	Carlo's take: Tom Kaufman at Marietta. How does Marietta look following the 2024 8-3 record? Can they do it again or better?
	Kobe's take: Ed Raby, Jr. coming into St. John Fisher is tested early with what could be a strong FDU-Florham squad on the road.

If you could be at one game in person — or another game — which one would it be?

	Greg's take: I’ll be in Arizona for C-M-S vs. Lake Forest, but if I could be at another game this week I would be at Plymouth State at New England College. The Pilgrims open their inaugural Division III varsity season on Saturday and being in attendance for a first-ever game (at home!) sounds like a heck of a lot of fun.
	Patrick's take: Well, I'll be at several, but if I could magically be two places at once, I'd want to be at the Wheaton-Mount Union game. I'd also be looking for a little Chowder Bowl action on Friday night, with SUNY-Maritime at Mass. Maritime. Someday I will get some of that.
	Logan's take: There's a glut of great games all over the country this weekend in DIII, and it's hard to pick just one. If I had to pick just one, I think I would head to UWRF to see them take on Alma. The top two quarterbacks in the country, two teams that are hungry to make a playoff run, and the first Small School Saturday broadcast from Kobe and the guys over at D1 Rejects should make for an amazing atmosphere. Both teams play entertaining football, even if the game isn't close, but this should be a barnburner.
	Riley's take: Alma at No. 19 UW-River Falls. Carter St. John vs. Kaleb Blaha. It’s without a doubt the best quarterback matchup anywhere in the country in Week 1. These are two of the most experienced quarterbacks anywhere in D3, and I expect that will be on full display Saturday afternoon in a high-scoring, fast-paced kind of battle.
	Carlo's take: Huntingdon at Berry. Would love to see these two do battle in person in Mount Berry.  Two great programs, two great coaches, D3 SAA vs USA South football at its best.
	Kobe's take: River Falls hosting Alma. Small School Saturday is going to be ELECTRIC!

Got picks? Put them in the comments!