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| The defense is home to the most returning starters for No. 1 North Central. North Central athletics photo by Steve Woltmann |
Quick Hits is back for Week 2, and the schedule is absolutely loaded. Four Top 25 matchups highlight the weekend, including the season debut of No. 1 North Central in one of those ranked-on-ranked showdowns. Last week’s No 10 team fell- should this week’s No. 10 be feeling nervous this Saturday? The panelists will also let us know which Week 1 shutout victim is most likely to flip the script on Saturday, and who might find themselves in an unexpected 0-2 hole to start the season. As always, we're serving up six questions to our six panelists. Let’s get on with the Hits!
Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings, Riley Zayas of True to the Cru, Carlo Guadagnino of Dingo Talk, and Kobe Manzo of D1 Rejects.
— Greg Thomas
Which game is the Game of the Week?
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Greg's take: No. 20 John Carroll at No. 3 Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays came out of the gate strong with a 42-14 win at Ithaca- the kind of impressive road result you might expect from a top 3 team. The Blue Streaks cruised as expected at Waynesburg behind an NCAA Division III record-setting performance from QB Nick Semptimphelter. This is a huge game that could have significant top-8 NPI ramifications. |
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Patrick's take: No. 16 UW-Oshkosh at No. 1 North Central. No doubt about this in my mind. Great start to the season for Oshkosh, and it leaves Linfield with some self-doubt going into their next game in two weeks, and North Central is, of course, the defending champ which has to break in a bunch of new players in key spots on offense. Looking forward to so many things in this game. |
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Logan's take: No. 10 Wartburg at UW-Stout. Stout's biggest question mark coming into the season was their receiving corps, but newcomer Avron Carter had a nice 106 yard game against Dubuque last week. The defense he'll face this week is a big step up from last week, though, with the Knights consistently among the national leaders in almost every category. And Warburg quarterback Leo Dodd has mobility that Stout's defense didn't see a week ago, when they struggled on their way to allowing 35 points. |
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Riley's take: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City. After what we saw from Mikey Maloney last week, I’m even more intrigued to see how the Purple Raider offense clashes with Grove City’s physical defense. This should be the most experienced defense Mount Union sees until the playoffs, and that includes a Grove City secondary that picked off Cortland’s quarterbacks six (yes, six!) times in Week 1. Moving the ball against the Wolverines is a tall task, but so is slowing down the Purple Raider receivers, creating a matchup of elite offense vs. elite defense. It will take a four-quarter performance to win this game. |
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Carlo's take: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City. Both coming off nice wins in week one, GCC will need to get after it early in this one if they want a chance at going 2-0. |
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Kobe's take: No. 2 Mount Union at No. 15 Grove City. So far the Wolverines brutally tough early-season scheduling has paid off, and now Grove City brings a LOT of confidence back to their home field. |
Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?
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Greg's take: No. 10 Wartburg. The Knights got a stellar performance out of their defense in a 21-7 win over Monmouth, but this week they’ll make the trip up to Menomonie to take a UW-Stout squad that picked up a narrow week 1 win over Dubuque. If the Blue Devils clean up a bit of the turnover bug that hindered them last week, an upset could be on tap. |
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Patrick's take: No. 19 Randolph-Macon. This is a tough trip and Central is no pushover. The Dutch got off to a good start in Week 1 vs. Illinois Wesleyan but were not able to maintain that momentum down the stretch, so they will want to avoid that this week. Macon did give up 34 points last week but 20 of those were in the fourth quarter, so that's something that can get tightened up as well. |
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Logan's take: No. 19 Randolph-Macon at Central. Randolph-Macon got out to an expected large lead against Dickinson a week ago, but the Red Devils scored 27 second half points to finish the game, the most points surrendered by RMC since a 2023 quarterfinal matchup against Johns Hopkins. Central presents a much more dynamic offense than Dickinson, so hopefully the Yellow Jackets learned from the film last week. |
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Riley's take: No. 10 Wartburg (at UW-Stout). Stout’s offense is explosive, led by a dual-threat quarterback in Adam Moen back for his second year as the starter. The Blue Devils won a 38-35 shootout over Dubuque in Week 1, but that won’t be the story against Wartburg. The offense will produce, but I expect this to come down to the performance of Stout’s defense. It took Wartburg’s offense a while to get going against Monmouth last Saturday, and the Knights tend to be run-oriented in their playcalling, which I believe plays into Stout’s favor. The Blue Devil defensive front doesn’t wear down easily, and their resistance to Wartburg's rushing attack will be enough to give the hosts an upset win in Week 2. |
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Carlo's take: No. 9 UW-La Crosse traveling to Pittsburgh this weekend against No. 17 Carnegie Mellon. Is there any rust for La Crosse as they open the season, while CMU looks to build off of a nice shutout win! |
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Kobe's take: No. 10 Wartburg is on upset watch. Stout's offense will show up and so will Wartburg's defense... but which of the opposite sides breaks first? |
Several Top 25 teams are making their season debut. What combined record will they post this weekend?
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Greg's take: St. John’s and Bethel should have successful debuts without much resistance. While UW-La Crosse goes to Carnegie Mellon for a difficult test and North Central hosts UW-Oshkosh who are coming fresh off of a big win at Linfield. I think the Top 25 teams currently 0-0 go 4-0 on Saturday, but these last two might have more tension than you might expect. |
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Patrick's take: 4-0. I mean, I could see 2-2, but I gotta go chalk here and pick all four teams to win. The two teams that could possibly lose are the ones playing other ranked teams, of course. |
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Logan's take: 4-0. St. John's and Bethel are both favored by over 50 points, and both NCC and UWL are favored. The second blog post I ever wrote when I started covering D-III football was about how the "teams improve the most between weeks 1 & 2" trope is actually false. When I dug into it, teams with a Week 1 bye actually beat their projections by around a FG per game when playing an opponent with a game under their belt. |
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Riley's take: 4-0. While we’re certainly going to see at least a couple of these teams really challenged in their openers (looking at you, North Central and UW-La Crosse), I think this quartet will start 2025 in the win column. |
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Carlo's take: 3-1. NCC, St. John's and Bethel start the season off 1-0. |
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Kobe's take: Combined record will be 4-0. |
Which under the radar game are you following?
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Greg's take: Eureka at Westminster (Mo.). Saturday night, Eureka reclaimed the Lincoln Trophy with a come-from-behind 14-13 win over Knox. The win snapped a 16-game losing streak for the Red Devils. Westminster picked up a road win at Manchester, equaling their win total from each of the last three seasons. A Blue Jays win would give Westminster its first 2-0 start since 2011. |
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Patrick's take: Oberlin at Hiram. It's a Region 4 game here in Region 2, now that Hiram has joined the Presidents' Athletic Conference and has been reassigned to Region 2. Last year this was Oberlin's only victory on the season, and the Yeomen still have experienced quarterback Drew Nye behind center, which should give them a fighting chance. Hiram has lost 13 in a row, and it's hard to read much into either team's Week 1 game, except to say that Hiram did manage to put points on the board against Heidelberg. |
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Logan's take: No. 24 Whitworth at Eastern Oregon. At least according to Top 25 voters, Whitworth has already passed Linfield as the NWC favorite. Eastern Oregon is a respectable opponent, finishing 5-6 a year ago playing in one of the top conferences in NAIA, but if Whitworth is truly good enough to win a conference title, this is a game they should win by multiple scores. Look for the Pirates to try to get star running back Luis Salgado more involved - he only had 43 yards on 15 touches last week after a 2024 season with 1,375 all purpose yards. |
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Riley's take: Concordia (Wis.) at Calvin. Calvin has absolutely hit the ground running with a football program that is only in Year 2. For the second consecutive year, the Knights are 1-0, but now comes the chance to take another step: winning back-to-back games for the first time in program history. There’s no question that they have the talent to do so, though Concordia poses a tough matchup, coming off a season-opening win of its own over Thiel. Calvin’s offense has far more weapons than it did when these two met last season, and we’ll have to find out if that translates to a win against what looks to be one of the NACC’s top defenses. |
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Carlo's take: Belhaven at Trinity (Texas). Both are coming off of opening week wins which sets up for a nice week 2 matchup in San Antonio. |
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Kobe's take: Curry at Coast Guard. RBs Montie Quinn (Curry) & Harrison Hensley (USCGA) combined for 495 yds & 7 TD in week one... who tops their previous performance? |
Who will be the most surprising 0–2 team after Week 2?
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Greg's take: Washington & Jefferson. The Presidents took a tough loss at home in Week 1 to a high flying Utica squad. This week the task doesn’t get much easier as they travel to Farmville, Virginia, to take on a Hampden-Sydney squad that is flying high after a huge road win at Delaware Valley. The Tigers are led by senior quarterback Carter Sido and, of course, this game is a reunion of sorts for H-SC head coach Vince Luvara, who previously held the defensive coordinator position at W&J. |
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Patrick's take: There are 110 teams which are 0-1, and some don't play this week. We have to pick someone who lost last week to lose this week also and have it credibly be surprising. I think I will go with Westminster (Pa.), which travels to Franklin & Marshall. Meanwhile, I see people postulating that Cortland could be on this list, but I don't see it. Hobart will likely be 0-2, but the surprise was last week against Alfred, not if they lose to Brockport this week. |
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Logan's take: According to my model, there are six teams who were upset last week and play a competitive game this week: Westminster (Pa.) (vs. Marietta last week, Franklin & Marshall this week), Ohio Northern (Franklin & Heidelberg), DelVal (Hampden-Sydney & King's), Montclair State (USMMA & Lycoming), and Wisconsin Lutheran (St. Scholastica & Buena Vista). My pick is Delaware Valley, who haven't had back-to-back losses since 2014, and haven't started 0-2 since 2012. |
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Riley's take: Westminster (Pa.). The Titans don’t have the easiest non-conference schedule, but prior to last week, I wouldn’t have thought there was a great possibility of Westminster heading into PAC play 0-2. But that's changed, as Westminster comes off a 12-8 loss to Marietta and faces Franklin & Marshall on the road in Week 2. The offensive showing was concerning against Marietta — with only seven first downs and a 2-for-10 conversion rate on third down — and considering F&M is led by a hard-nosed, veteran defense, it may be another difficult day when it comes to moving the ball. |
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Carlo's take: It could be the Presidents of W&J. Tough loss at home against Utica last week. Hampden-Sydney is coming off of a dominant performance against Del Val. It's going to be a battle! |
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Kobe's take: Aurora. A shutout in Week 1 with 1 net rushing yard showed little promise combined with a defensive effort that allowed 547 total yards of offense... and they have to go on the road. |
Which Week 1 shutout victim will bounce back with the biggest margin of victory in Week 2?
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Greg's take: Buffalo State. The Bengals had a rough opener against the always-stellar Brockport defense, but should find some offensive footing this week against Hartwick. I like the Bengals to bounce back and pick up a big win this week at home. |
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Patrick's take: I'm going to go with Aurora. They should be able to win at Mount St. Joseph. I don't know how big the margin of victory will be, but once you get shut out in Week 1, I find it hard to have any confidence in Week 2. |
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Logan's take: When I read this question, I instinctively thought the answer would be Aurora, but MSJ is a quality opponent. Here are my projected margins of victory for the eight teams shut out last week who play this week (Augsburg will have to wait a week to get on the scoreboard):
Buffalo State (vs. Hartwick): +18.1
Chicago (@ Cornell): +10.5
Aurora (@ Mt. St. Joseph): +10.4
Rhodes (vs. Austin College): +9.0
Buena Vista (vs. Wis. Lutheran): -1.4
FDU-Florham (@ Lebanon Valley): -9.2
Loras (@ Benedictine): -9.4
Rose-Hulman (@ Trine): -10.1
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Riley's take: Chicago (at Cornell). Sure, the offense got shut out in the opener, but that coincided with the defense holding Carnegie Mellon to just 20 points. The defense exceeded my expectations in Week 1, and makes me think Chicago may be capable of shutting out Cornell in Week 2. Facing a Cornell defense that gave up 62 points to Coe, the door is open for Jack Ruff and Chicago’s offense to string together a few scoring drives and win by double-digits. |
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Carlo's take: Aurora coming off a 41-0 loss to Platteville. Aurora travels to Cincinnati to Play Mount St. Joseph. The Spartans bounce back this weekend with a big win. |
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Kobe's take: FDU-Florham. Almost 300 yards of total offense in Week 1, but turnovers and unsuccessful 4th down conversions plagued the offense. The Devils will bounce back. |
Got picks? Put them in the comments!