/notables/2025/09/quick-hits-week4

Quick Hits: Our Week 4 predictions

Devon Kollasch has had a touchdown catch in each of Coe's three games so far this season, with 14 catches for 339 yards and five scores.
Coe athletics photo
 

Only 88 games this weekend? That barely feels like a Saturday in Division III football! With the WIAC and Centennial (among others) on bye, the schedule might look a little lighter, but there’s still plenty to chew on. Our Games of the Week bring some high-leverage conference showdowns, while elsewhere we’re talking streaks that might finally end, NEWMAC scoring margins, and whether the NACC’s road warriors can keep their sweep alive. Quick Hits is here as always with six fresh questions to set the table for Week 4.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings, Riley Zayas of True to the Cru, Carlo Guadagnino of Dingo Talk, and Kobe Manzo of D1 Rejects.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Alma at No. 15 Hope. Both sides had an interesting week in the HCAC-MIAA challenge. Pat recounted the wild endgame at Alma that saw Hanover spring an upset over the Scots, while Hope needed to defend a two-minute drill to hold off Mt. St. Joseph. Maybe they had an eye on this game? Whatever the case, a significant upper hand in the MIAA race is up for grabs and, for Alma, possibly their postseason chances ride on getting out of Holland with a win.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Coe at No. 7 Wartburg. This is a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, as it looks right now. Coe comes in averaging 57 points per game, while Wartburg has allowed just a hair under 7 per game. Last year, this was a game which Wartburg won 14-7, and Coe averaged a bucket of points in every game except the ones vs. Central, Wartburg and the playoff game at Bethel. 
Logan's take: Coe at No. 7 Wartburg. These games the last few years have been low-scoring and close (14-7, 27-21, 19-14), with Wartburg coming out on top each time. Coe usually hangs their hat on defense, but with one of the least experienced defenses in the country, their offense has been more than picking up the slack, scoring over 60 twice and 47 in their loss to UWRF. Wartburg's defense, though, is as good as ever, only giving up 20 total points and 103 total rushing yards through three games. The Knights offense hasn't put up a ton of points, but still has at least 344 yards in every game, and they're riding a 27 game conference win streak.
Riley's take: No. 13 Susquehanna at Christopher Newport. CNU’s passing attack has been nothing short of stellar through two games (10 TD, 0 INT, 301.5 YPG), and coming off a bye week, the undefeated Captains will be well-prepared for this test. Susquehanna is looking to put last week’s 44-20 loss to Johns Hopkins behind them, and the best way to do that is by making a statement on the road in Newport News. CNU hasn’t played an opponent of this caliber yet in 2025, and how the defensive front fares against Susquehanna RB Rahshan La Mons will determine a lot about the direction this game goes. A win for either side will go a long way with both heading into their conference openers. 
Carlo's take: Washington & Jefferson at No. 18 Grove City. Both teams coming off a bye week. W&J 0-2 for the first time since 97, GCC night game atmosphere could be the changing of the guard in the PAC 
Kobe's take: No. 2 Mount Union at Baldwin Wallace. There's a good chance the Purple Raiders roll through the OAC again... but the Yellow Jackets are 3-0 with an offense that isn't slowing down. Still would be shocked if Mount got upset, but this should be telling for the remainder of league play.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 18 Grove City. I don’t often like to take road teams in the upset of the week category, but W&J is a proud program with their backs quite firmly against the wall after an 0-2 start. Grove City is a tough place to win and it’s going to be bananas under the lights, but it’s now or never for the Presidents in 2025.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 18 Grove City. The last time Washington & Jefferson started a season 0-3 was 1997, the second-to-last year under John Luckhardt, who coached W&J to the Stagg Bowl. The Presidents ripped off six consecutive wins to end that season. It's hard to imagine W&J starting 0-3.
Logan's take: No. 13 Susquehanna (vs. Christopher Newport) - After a week 3 with only one real upset opportunity, there are a few better options this week. Wartburg vs. Coe (63% win probability), Hope vs. Alma (64%), DePauw vs. Wittenberg (77%), Grove City vs. W&J (85%), and Central vs. Dubuque (85%) should all be competitive, but my model this year loves Christopher Newport. The Captains had one of the top returning production numbers in the country, and have looked much improved in blowout wins vs. Trine & Gettysburg. The Riverhawks will be a different sort of challenge, but are coming off a blockbuster matchup last week.
Riley's take: No. 15 Hope (vs Alma). This is a game Alma absolutely has to win if the Scots are going to be a playoff team after a 1-2 start. They know that. Hope knows that. The last time Hope took a home loss was 2023, but Alma was the one to do it, quarterbacked by Carter St. John. Well, St. John is still under center for the Scots, and as a senior, he knows the magnitude of this moment as well as anyone. There is every reason to believe Alma will come out with a different kind of fire in their eyes in Holland, knowing their backs are against the wall. If the defense slows down the run better than they did last week against Hanover, St. John and the offense can handle the rest. 
Carlo's take: If No. 18 Grove City isn’t careful it could be them. The Presidents are going to come with a fire in their stomach. Last time this game was in Grove City the home team won by 3.
Kobe's take: Even though it isn't a D3 opponent, No. 16 UMHB is getting a proven winner in Mars Hill that already has taken down worthy opponents in 2025. The Lions defeating Carson-Newman in week 2 tells me they won't be outclassed on the LOS, and I'm curious to see how the Cru's ground game responds after a bad showing vs UWW.

Which long streak (winning or losing) is most likely to be snapped this weekend?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Calvin has a seven game losing streak in the MIAA, which is long but not crazy long- unless that seven games is the entirety of the program’s history.  I’m looking for the Knights to turn Hunter Hogan and Luke Michmerhuizen loose on the also-undefeated Kalamazoo Hornets to score the Knights’ first MIAA victory in program history.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Not sure what qualifies as long, really, but the second-longest active Division III winning streak is on the line on Saturday. Sure, North Central has the longest active streak, at 17 games, but three teams are tied for second, with seven consecutive wins. One of them is Christopher Newport, which will see its streak go by the wayside when it takes on Susquehanna on Saturday. 
Logan's take: Hiram (15 game road losing streak).  The Terriers have not won a road game in over one thousand days, when they beat Oberlin 34-7 in 2022. They're not an outright favorite this week at St. Vincent, but this is close to a tossup, with St. Vincent ranked #202 and Hiram ranked #203 in my predictive ratings and homefield advantage going against Hiram. Hiram showed fight last week against Waynesburg, rallying in the 4th quarter to come back within 1 score and then driving within 13 yards of the endzone, before a potential game-tying drive ended with an interception.
Riley's take: Hilbert played its first season four years ago in 2022. The Hawks are still looking for their first win, a streak of 28 games. On the surface, Hilbert’s raw offensive numbers aren’t anything special. But when you look at their drives against St. Vincent and Alfred State, their low scoring wasn’t the product of not moving the ball, but rather the inability to finish drives. They’re capable of being much more competitive offensively, and it’s only a matter of time before they get over that hump. If that breakthrough comes on Saturday against Buffalo State, the Hawks might just end the day in the win column.
Carlo's take: Maine Maritime gets its offense going this week and snaps its 27 game skid against Keystone. 
Kobe's take:  I picked Wartburg to be upset vs UW-Stout a few weeks ago and the Knights defense stepped up in a BIG way... but I do feel that their 27 game winning-streak in the ARC could come to a close vs Coe this weekend. 

Which under the radar game are you following?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Cal Lutheran at Redlands. Welcome back late night SCIAC games! The Sixth Street Rivalry is always good, but hardly under the radar. Redlands put up a surprise result in Week 3, doubling up Whitworth at the Pine Bowl. Cal Lutheran is also off to a 2-0 start this season- their best start since 2021. The Kingsmen are making the longest road trip in the SCIAC Saturday over to Redlands in the Smudge Pot game. Redlands has won 11 straight in the series, but both squads have momentum and I expect a good game with a rivalry trophy on the line.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Gallaudet at Roanoke. Listeners to the podcast will have heard this before, but this is a good matchup of young programs -- Roanoke playing its third varsity game since restarting the program and Gallaudet playing its second game as a member of the Old Dominion Athletic Conference. 
Logan's take: University of New England vs. Western New England. Western New England had the big upset win vs. Springfield in week 1 and UNE is off to the best start in the short history of their program, making these two the biggest challengers to Endicott in the Conference of New England. The Nor'easters have never beaten the Golden Bears, but their offense is averaging over 600 yards and 40 points per game.
Riley's take: Benedictine at Concordia (WI). For the second straight season, Benedictine is off to a 3-0 start, led by a run defense allowing just 41.3 yards/game and a stellar running back in Dino Stephens Jr. But last year in Week 4, Concordia (WI) snapped Benedictine’s hot start, setting off a four-game losing skid for the Eagles. Will Concordia do the same this time around after building momentum in last week’s win over rival Wisconsin Lutheran? If Benedictine wins, it’ll be the Eagles’ second 4-0 start in the last decade. Either way, this game in Mequon should have a hand in determining the NACC champion, especially with Benedictine having beaten defending champ Aurora on the road last Saturday. 
Carlo's take: Kalamazoo at Calvin -  only one comes out of it still undefeated!
Kobe's take: Hartwick at Brockport. Both 2-1 teams need to bounce back in a big way from last week's losses to prevent a skid, Hartwick has even more to prove as they haven't beaten the Golden Eagles since 1948.

Let’s play NEWMAC Stack! Put the NEWMAC results in order of scoring margin (largest to smallest).

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: My NEWMAC stack: 

Largest margin - USMMA @ Norwich -> Springfield @ MIT -> USCGA @ WPI -> SUNY-Maritime @ Salve Regina - Smallest Margin

Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Top of the stack, Springfield at MIT, Coast Guard at WPI, Merchant Marine at Norwich and SUNY-Maritime at Salve Regina.
Logan's take: Winning teams, with projected margin of victory:
USMMA (23)
Springfield (20)
Salve Regina (13)
USCGA (5, but the total points scored could get crazy)
Riley's take: USMMA over Norwich, Salve Regina over SUNY-Maritime, Springfield over MIT, USCGA over WPI. 
Carlo's take:

Coast Guard (at WPI)
USMMA (at Norwich)
Springfield (at MIT)
Salve Regina (vs. SUNY-Maritime)

Kobe's take: Did not stack.

After a road sweep in the opening weekend of NACC play, how many NACC road teams will win this weekend?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: As much as I want stats-of-the-weird like road teams winning every game through the first two weeks of an entire conference schedule, I can’t quite predict that here.  Wisconsin Lutheran should be a sizeable favorite at home against Concordia-Chicago. I like the other three road teams to win.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Two NACC road teams win.
Logan's take: Three - with Aurora, Benedictine, and Lakeland all winning on the road.
Riley's take: It won’t be another road sweep, but 3 NACC road teams will win in Week 4: Benedictine, Lakeland, and Aurora.
Carlo's take: 3. Aurora, Concordia-Chicago and Lakeland.
Kobe's take: 3 of them. Don't have confidence in Lakeland picking up the W (sorry Muskies).

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Jan. 4: All times Eastern
Final
UW-River Falls 24, at North Central (Ill.) 14
@ Canton, Ohio
Video Box Score Photos
Dec. 20: All times Eastern
Final
at North Central (Ill.) 41, John Carroll 21
Box Score Recap
Final
at UW-River Falls 48, Johns Hopkins 41
Video Box Score Recap Recap Photos
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