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Quick Hits: Our Week 6 predictions

When the two teams with the most Division III football CSC Academic All-Americans meet up, it's smart to consider it a potential game of the week. Johns Hopkins has 44 and Carnegie Mellon has 31 since 2011.
Photo by Mike Atherton, d3photography.com

Rise and shine, Division III fans, it’s Breakfast Bowl weekend! Rowan and Montclair State will get the griddle sizzling early, and they’re just the appetizer for a loaded Week 6 menu featuring three Top 25 showdowns, unbeaten clashes across the country, and some of the nation’s top passers looking to keep the air game cooking.

Our Quick Hits panel is ready to dish on the week’s biggest games, upset alerts, and under-the-radar gems, plus which defenses might finally get a little too much on their plate.

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Patrick Coleman, Logan Hansen of Hansen Ratings, Riley Zayas of True to the Cru, Carlo Guadagnino of Dingo Talk, and Kobe Manzo of D1 Rejects.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 17 Carnegie Mellon at No. 3 Johns Hopkins. Around The Nation just made the Centennial Conference the No. 2 ranked conference in the division and this matchup is a big reason why. Both teams have 2025 experience playing against other Top 25 teams, so the pumps should be primed on both sides for a high level game and early control of the chase for the conference championship. The ASC showdown in Abilene gets an honorable mention here, though we’ll have another shot to talk about UMHB and HSU down the road.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 22 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 9 Hardin-Simmons. Not only are there plenty of implications for this game, it has the potential to be super entertaining in a way that some of the other top games might not be.
Logan's take: No. 6 UW-Platteville at No. 14 UW-River Falls. There are a lot of options for GOTW, and no one stands out head & shoulders above the rest, so I'm banking on the WIAC doing what it did last week and give us either two TDs in the final 90 seconds or a 17 point second comeback and double OT thriller. UWP hasn't been tested much yet this season, but that's not because they haven't played good opponents - the Pioneers look like they're more than ready to defend their spot atop the WIAC. Can UWRF bounce back after letting one slip through their fingers (-3 turnover margin, gave up winning TD with 10 seconds left) at Oshkosh last week?
Riley's take: No. 17 Carnegie Mellon at No. 3 Johns Hopkins. The Centennial Conference is stacked this year, but these two remain the league’s frontrunners and the Centennial’s top two defenses. It has all the makings of being a chess match, and those turn out to be some of the most intriguing games from an Xs and Os standpoint. Their last meeting came two decades ago in 2005, when JHU won a defensive struggle, 9-6, and while we should get more scoring in this one, I’m anticipating the same level of defensive intensity.
Carlo's take: Honorable mention to The Breakfast Bowl in the NJAC.  This one is easy for me it’s the No. 3 vs No. 17 matchup- the Centennial power matchup Johns Hopkins hosting Carnegie Mellon
Kobe's take: No. 17 Carnegie Mellon at No. 3 Johns Hopkins. Ahhhh yes, your classic Centennial matchup! This one is going to be very exciting to follow. The league's top scoring offense of JHU tasked with overcoming the top scoring defense in CMU. Tartans offense needs to keep up in this one if they want the road win, and it starts with moving the chains; Carnegie Mellon has been less than proficient on 3rd down so have to stay ahead of the sticks and keep Geoff Schroeder and company on the sideline.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: No. 16 Trinity (Texas). No question the Tigers are hot. They’ve won their last three contests by 49, 37, and 51 points. Carnegie Mellon was able to frustrate the Vikings offense, but that has been the only misstep for Berry in 2025. You won’t find many environments in the division tougher than Valhalla under the lights. Expect a primetime showcase in the SAA.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 16 Trinity (Texas). You blink and the Tigers have skipped all the way into the Top 20. Berry isn't the easiest place to play and the Vikings have at least as good a shot as anyone this week.
Logan's take: No. 16 Trinity (Texas) @ Berry.  Several Top 25 teams are on bye this week, but that doesn't mean we're without games with upset potential. Trinity (59% win probability), Muhlenberg (63%), and UW-Oshkosh (69%) all play competitive games this week. Last season these two played a thrilling 38-35 overtime game won by Trinity, and the game was a missed PAT in the 4th away from being won by Berry. Berry's PAT troubles aren't completely gone (2 misses in 2025), but I expect another great matchup.
Riley's take: No. 11 UW-Oshkosh (at UW-Stout). Stout will need some explosive plays to pull off a win here, but they are plays the Blue Devil offense is more than capable of making. The Wartburg shutout seemingly offered some valuable lessons, and in the two games since, QB Adam Moen has been stellar, accounting for 8 TDs with 0 INTs. In some ways, I think Stout’s offense matches up against Oshkosh similarly to how UW-River Falls did a week ago, and if Moen manages to go a third-straight game without an interception, I like the Blue Devils’ chances to score enough to edge the Titans in a one-possession game.
Carlo's take: UW-Platteville will need to be careful with UW-River Falls. That being said, no upsets this week. 
Kobe's take: No. 16 Trinity (Texas). TU is on the road to GA to take on the Berry Vikings and although recent history is not in their favor (Trinity has won the last 4 meetings), the margin of victory has only gotten smaller for the Tigers and I feel this weekend the tide changes for a statement SAA win.

The Centennial has four undefeated teams facing off this weekend. Which ones are still perfect when the rubber pellets settle?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: It’s just too hard to pick against Johns Hopkins. The Blue Jays have answered every question asked of them this season- emphatically. Muhlenberg is enjoying a bounce back season. If the Mules can stay focused, and I think they will, they’ll leave Week 6 with a perfect 5-0 record.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: This is Johns Hopkins and Muhlenberg's time to shine.
Logan's take: Johns Hopkins & Muhlenberg - The Blue Jays are battle tested and one of the elite teams in the division, so while CMU is a great opponent, Hopkins has proven they're just as good or better than last year's semifinal team. And while the Mules haven't played the caliber of schedule that JHU has, they've proven themselves against much stiffer competition than F&M has played yet.
Riley's take: It may be a defensive battle, but I expect Bay Harvey and the Johns Hopkins passing game to have a real edge against this Tartan defense, ultimately providing enough consistent offense for the Blue Jays to stay perfect. Muhlenberg has shown impressive qualities in its 4-0 start, but the Mules’ glaring weakness has been in pass coverage. And Franklin & Marshall’s air attack has only gotten better since Week 1. If QB Ty Tremba replicates what he’s done the last two games, I like F&M to pull out a Top 25 win.
Carlo's take: I like Johns Hopkins and Muhlenberg to walk out of this weekend still perfect. 
Kobe's take: Johns Hopkins and Muhlenberg.

Which under the radar game are you following?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: Rowan at Montclair State. Is it under the radar? Maybe not. The second edition of the Breakfast Bowl happens on Saturday. Rowan won the inaugural Breakfast Bowl in overtime last year. The novelty of the game aside, both schools are using this platform to raise funds for community food pantries which is a fantastic way to see Division III programs having positive impacts in their communities.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: No. 19 Wheaton at Illinois Wesleyan. Is it out of bounds to call a game with a Top 25 team under the radar? This is interesting because IWU is taking some steps forward and Wheaton needs a week to get its feet back underneath it after last Saturday night's Little Brass Blowout. 
Logan's take: Centre at Maryville(Tenn.). All four of the SAA's playoff teams from 2024 play each other this week. Even if Maryville had been in the SAA a year ago, the top of that conference would have been just as close. The Scots beat Berry in the playoffs, but lost to Centre in September, 17-14. I have to imagine Maryville has had this rematch on their minds for a long time - they outgained Centre 370-135, turned the ball over three times, including a fumble return for a TD, missed a FG, and over half of Centre's total yards came on their final drive that setup the game-winning field goal.
Riley's take: King's at Stevenson. Under the lights for a Friday night duel, Stevenson is in search of its first 5-0 start since 2016. Boasting both the top scoring offense and top scoring defense in the MAC, the Mustangs have been a roll to open MAC play, securing double-digit wins over Widener, Alvernia, and FDU-Florham. King’s is in the opposite position after struggling to a 1-3 start, and coming off a bye week, this is the perfect time for the Monarchs to turn the page and change the trajectory of their season. 
Carlo's take: I like Pacific Lutheran traveling to Puget Sound! Little early day west coast football out of the NWC.
Kobe's take: Rose-Hulman at Franklin. The Grizzles haven't beaten the Fightin' Engineers since 2019. Rose-Hulman is 0-4 so far in 2025, but they were winless heading into this matchup a year ago and still pulled out a win. Need another strong performance from LB Brayden Baker and this defense against a Fightin' Engineers offense that is averaging less than 200 yards/game

Among the nation’s top four passers — Bryson Rollins (Maryville), Tyler Szalkowski (Utica), Jack Curtis (Carleton), and Hayden Teeter (Puget Sound) — who will throw for the most yards this week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: I’m going to go with the volume play in this one and pick Puget Sound’s Hayden Teeter. Teeter is averaging over 50 attempts per game and that’s not a trend I see breaking this weekend against Pacific Lutheran’s 179th ranked pass defense.
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: Hayden Teeter, Puget Sound. I think Pacific Lutheran will have the lead in a way that Teeter remains in the game and keeps passing and passing. None of the other top three passers is likely in an underdog situation.
Logan's take: Bryson Rollins (Maryville). My gut said this was almost definitely going to be Jack Curtis (Carleton), but Maryville's opponent, Centre, has been struggling this year against the pass this season, allowing just shy of 300 yards per game. A year ago, Centre's defense gave up fewer than 225 passing yards per contest, and Rollins still managed over 300 yards through the air. Add in the revenge factor I mentioned in the previous question, and I think Rollins rolls.
Riley's take: Jack Curtis. Carleton’s offense is in high gear at this point, with Curtis having thrown for over 375 yards in each of the Knights’ last three games. Facing a St. Scholastica defense that allows 8.6 yards/attempt and has given up the second-most passing yards/game in the MIAC, Curtis should have a favorable matchup in what could turn into a shootout for at least a couple quarters.
Carlo's take: Tyler Szalkowski will look to continue his air raid up there in upstate New York.
Kobe's take: Jack Curtis. Love his story and his arm talent. Also love (if you're a Carleton fan) the fact that this St. Scholastica team is giving up almost 300 yards/game at the moment and haven't struck first offensively in their last two contests.

Seven teams are holding opponents under 40 rushing yards per game. Which one gives up the most on the ground this week?

Greg Thomas headshot Greg's take: These are great matchups for all of these top rush defenses that are playing this week. I don’t think any of Wartburg, Bethel, John Carroll, or Cal Lutheran are giving up much on the ground this week, but I’ll pick Cal Lutheran to give up the most rushing yards this week (but still not a whole lot).
Pat Coleman head shot Patrick's take: John Carroll gives up the most, even though it won't be a lot. It's kind of a perfect storm of stopping the ground game this weekend, as three of those seven teams are on bye this week and only one of the remaining four is facing a team that averages even 75 yards per game on the ground.
Logan's take: John Carroll. Of the four teams in this cohort who play this weekend, only JCU plays against a team that ranks in the Top 200 of the division in rushing yards per game, but Wittenberg is also struggling through an apparent injury to their starting quarterback that will likely allow JCU to focus on stopping the run, with the Tigers' passing attach not being much of a threat. I'm almost tempted to say the teams on Bye will allow the most yards this week.
Riley's take: While I don’t expect John Carroll to give up much more than their average (39.4 yds/game), I think the Blue Streak defense allows the most at Wittenberg. The Tigers have been committed to the run, and are coming off their second 150-yard game, averaging a season-best 5.8 yards/carry at Wooster. They won’t be close to that against JCU, but with running backs Josiah Payne and Jaheim Hudson, Wittenberg should have chances to pick up a few solid gains on the ground. 
Carlo's take: I think all of these run defenses are good but I’m going to go with John Carroll holding teams to 36yrds/game v Wittenberg averaging 126yrds/game. The Blue Streaks will need to pin their ears back and get after it. 
Kobe's take: John Carroll. I have to go with Wittenberg for sure. The Tigers average 126 yards per game on the ground so far and have a trio of guys in Josiah Payne, JJ Miller and Jaheim Hudson that have all been meaningful contributors in 2025.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!

Jan. 4: All times Eastern
Final
UW-River Falls 24, at North Central (Ill.) 14
@ Canton, Ohio
Video Box Score Photos
Dec. 20: All times Eastern
Final
at North Central (Ill.) 41, John Carroll 21
Box Score Recap
Final
at UW-River Falls 48, Johns Hopkins 41
Video Box Score Recap Recap Photos
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