Greg's take: John Carroll’s Kenny Grabolski delivered the hit heard ‘round the bracket with his 4th down double overtime stop against Mount Union and that hit helped deliver the Blue Streaks to Valhalla for this matchup with Berry. The Blue Streak defense has been impossibly good- 41 yards allowed in Round 2, 7 points allowed at Mount Union. After a slow start against LaGrange, Berry’s offense looked more like itself against Trinity. This is strength-on-strength game that can go either way- but I can’t pick against the squad that just won in Alliance.
John Carroll 24, Berry 18

Pat's take: Coming down off the high of beating Mount Union at Mount Union in the playoffs is somewhat of a mixed bag. Rowan famously did something unmentionable after winning at Mount in the 1999 semifinals. North Central went on to win it all in 2019. Alma lost at home in the next round in 2023, although allowances could be made for the opponent (eventual champion Cortland) and the circumstances (losing their All-America quarterback at halftime). I offer this brief history only to say that there is some space in between "losing in the very next round" and "winning 72 of the next 74 games." John Carroll will slot right in there. Berry will be a challenge defensively, but not more so than Mount Union, not significantly more so than DePauw or Johns Hopkins. For Berry, this is the challenge also of playing someone new, something which John Carroll has done all year but Berry has not even had to do in these playoffs.
John Carroll 24, Berry 15

Keith's take: The Blue Streaks stole the show in D-III with their win at Mount Union last weekend, and have allowed just 13 points in its two playoff wins. The Vikings are no slouch defensively, at No. 33 nationally in total defense and No. 8 in scoring defense, compared with John Carroll's 4th and 10th. Mount Berry, Ga. will likely be the only playoff site where weather creeps into the 60s on Saturday. If Berry can run the ball and control the line, it can become one of the most surprising semifinalists in recent memory. But you probably need to learn to spell Semptimphelter, as the Tennessee native QB will help the John Carroll offense provide just enough to get it done. 
John Carroll 14, Berry 9

Logan's take: John Carroll didn't just get a monkey off their back last week, they got an 800 lb gorilla off their back. Neither of these squads played clean ball last week, but both found a way to get it done. I rarely go too far off script from my model in these projections, but the matchups in this one seem to all swing in one direction to me. John Carroll's defense, excellent against the run, should be able to get Berry off the field and allow Semptimphelter their hyper efficient passing attack to take control.
John Carroll 35, Berry 17

Riley's take: With the way John Carroll's defense performed at Mount Union, I'm not sure how you can pick against the Blue Streaks. Yes, it's a long trip. Yes, this is a different situation than last week, with no prior history between JCU and Berry. Yes, they're facing a hard-nosed Berry team aiming to make the most of its first trip to the national quarterfinals. But I don't think any of those aspects will hold JCU back. Ultimately, the defenses will dictate this one. Both have shown they can stop the run at a high rate, and the defensive lines are top-tier. Whichever defense does a better job of getting pressure on the quarterback and winning third down is going to win this game, and in my view, that's going to be JCU. 
John Carroll, 24, Berry, 13

Carlo's take: A clash of styles: JCU’s toughness in the trenches vs. Berry’s disciplined, methodical approach. If Berry can slow the game down and force long drives, they’ll keep this tight, but JCU’s explosiveness gives them a higher ceiling. Expect a physical, possession-driven matchup.
John Carroll 28, Berry 21

Kobe's take: Both of these teams are on historic runs and will get possibly the best game day conditions of the lot. The challenge for JCU is to overcome an emotional high and do it again on the road. Berry gets its first non-regular season rematch in this year's playoffs, but I'm going with the balanced Blue Streak offense to have a major bounce back week. Against Mount Union this team moved the ball well, this time they finish drives in the endzone.
JCU 28, Berry 21

Mike's take: Berry will have to control the clock in this game by using their running attack. However, John Carroll is a more complete and balanced offense. This leaves little room for a lackluster Berry passing attack to fall behind in this game. If JCU gets out to a big lead early, I think this could be over quick, but Berry‘s rushing game is good enough to keep them in this one for four quarters. 
John Carroll 31, Berry 20

Greg's take: Not much has been able to slow down Bethel’s offense this season. MIAC opponents, blizzards, WIAC defenses- barely a speed bump. The next challenge will be the stiffest yet in North Central’s defense. I’ve been fascinated this week by the chess match that will play out between Bethel OC Colin Duling and North Central DC Shane Dierking- two of the absolute best in the division at what they do going headset to headset for a spot in the semifinals. It’s going to be awesome. The only team that scores more than Bethel this season? North Central, of course. I expect an extremely competitive game here between a pair of undefeated teams with the Cardinals closing out an emotional week with a win.
North Central 38, Bethel 31

Pat's take: The committee is spared having to listen until eternity about the gaffe of having Mount Union and North Central meet in the semifinals, but Bethel is also shorted the opportunity of being able to advance to the national semifinals when the last two unbeaten teams in Division III football meet in the quarterfinals. Greg wrote about how the game has slowed down for Bethel quarterback Cooper Drews, but it will speed up again on Saturday, you know, weather permitting. Bethel will have to commit to running the ball to preserve its RYAA (if you don't know that reference, listen to Podcast 399) and/or stop the run sufficiently to win the RYAA battle. Will Devin Williams be able to help suppress the Cardinals' passing game? What will Garret Wilson look like as these playoffs go deeper? Lots of questions, and my answer for now is just to say:
North Central 35, Bethel 31

Keith's take: It's way too easy to just pencil the reigning champions into the next round, but it doesn't work like that, and it never has. UW-Whitewater, Mount Union and UMHB often had to survive close games in the fourth quarter along their runs to the title, and if North Central is going to repeat, it might have to do the same here. Both teams come in 12-0 with the top two scoring offenses in the nation, at 51.3 and 49.6 points per game, while having allowed only 14 and 15 TDs this season. Both bring size and weather hardiness into what might be a cold one. And while I wouldn't rule out an upset, I can't help but wonder if North Central finds inspiration after the coach who first got them over the championship hump in 2019, Jeff Thorne, passed this week. Perhaps it comes down to the Fred Mitchell Award winner, Aiden Ellison, who is good from 50 and beyond when the Cardinals need a clutch kick. 
North Central 33, Bethel 31

Logan's take: North Central is still the team to beat in this tournament, but some cracks have started to show. UW-La Crosse had no running game to speak of last week, yet they managed to outgain North Central, convert over 50% of their late downs, and then held Garret Wilson to his season low in passing efficiency. On the flip side, Bethel has erased any doubts anyone may have had about their schedule, and their tempo + balance could prove to be an issue, even for a defense as good as the Cardinals'.
North Central Ill. 35, Bethel 27

Riley's take: The only way Bethel stays in this one is by loading the box, forcing North Central to throw it, and making a few plays in the secondary. I won't be surprised if NCC turns out its lowest rushing total of the season against the Royals' powerful defensive front, but the challenge with NCC is that as soon as you take away the run, they'll beat you through the air. Garret Wilson will throw for over 250 yards and at least a few touchdowns with a high completion percentage that wears down Bethel's defense. And after allowing 20 second half points to UW-La Crosse last week, the NCC defense will turn in a much stronger final two quarters, sending the Cardinals back to the semifinals. 
North Central, 35, Bethel, 20

Carlo's take: North Central’s offense remains one of the most efficient machines in D3, but Bethel’s defense is built on discipline and timely playmaking. Bethel will need to limit big plays and win situational downs to stay in it. If NCC starts fast at home, the pressure ramps up quickly.
North Central 42, Bethel 14

Kobe's take: This Bethel offense with Cooper Drews will be able to keep pace with the Cardinals... the defense for the Royals is where the question lies, even with the talent they have on that side of the ball. I've seen that D-Line be stifling at the point of attack and that DB core with Devin Williams unafraid to play in the box. But North Central simply has too much on both sides of the ball still on their home field. The Cardinals get their best test of the season but prevail in Naperville.
North Central 28, Bethel 24

Mike's take: The last time NCC lost at home was to Bethel in 2018. I think BU has a good shot to do it again, with an outstanding front seven and an experienced quarterback throwing to one of the best WRs in the country. Ultimately, it’s too hard to bet against the reigning champs at home. I’ll go NCC in a tight one. 
North Central 37, Bethel 29

Greg's take: These two teams are on absolute heaters right now, and thank goodness because gametime temps for this one are going to be below zero. I don’t expect a ton of mistakes in this one- both teams have multi-year starters at quarterback and both teams have been at their best in the last handful of weeks. If there’s an x-factor in this one, it’s Kaleb Blaha. The Falcon quarterback has been the most dynamic player in the division this year and has his team playing as well as anyone and he’ll keep the Top Gun offense flying into the semifinals.
UW-River Falls 34, Wheaton 27

Pat's take: Brr. Cold. Also brr. Handling the rock will feel like a rock, and River Falls, Wisconsin, will be a hard place with the temperature around 0 degrees all day. Is that Kaleb Blaha weather? Who knows.
UW-River Falls 31, Wheaton 24

Keith's take: Wheaton's rally from a 2-2 start to three playoff wins has been nothing short of spectacular. And while every team evolves over the course of a season, the Thunder were down 30 at Mount Union and lost by 35 to North Central. It's unrealistic to expect every game to be close, so I have to pick a blowout somewhere. UW-River Falls, at more than 563 yards per game, led the nation in total offense, while the No. 2 team was at 515. The Falcons' defense can be had, but it's opportunistic, getting the ball back for Kaleb Blaha and the offense at a higher clip than all but 10 teams. There's no shame in the Thunder running into yet another juggernaut; the Falcons may well win a national championship. 
UW-River Falls 45, Wheaton 21

Logan's take: River Falls is the hottest team in the country right now, but Wheaton also has win over #5 Wartburg and blowout win over DePauw under their belt this post-season. The Thunder, with a healthy Forcucci under center, are as physical as any team in the country, but I just think River Falls will do what they've done every game for the last couple months, and put pressure on their opponent from every direction until they find a crack, and eventually, force a rupture.
UW-River Falls 42, Wheaton Ill. 31

Riley's take: A look at the forecast indicates this might be the coldest playoff game we've seen in 2025, and that's saying something considering the way the second round went. With temperatures below freezing and likely at least a few inches of snow on the ground, the weather should be a factor. We've already seen both teams win in the snow during these playoffs, but I'm most interested in how it might affect UWRF's offensive pace, especially considering with the caliber of defense the Falcons are up against. They have looked near-unstoppable behind the play of QB Kaleb Blaha this season, and while I expect Wheaton's defense to provide plenty of timely stops, Blaha will make enough big plays with his legs to keep UWRF's season alive.  
UW-River Falls, 34, Wheaton, 27

Carlo's take: Wheaton’s defense is elite every year, but UW-River Falls brings a high-octane offense that can stress even the best units vertically. The key is whether Wheaton can control the clock and keep UWRF’s playmakers on the sideline. This one has real shootout potential if it opens up early.
UW-River Falls 42, Wheaton 35

Kobe's take: This Wheaton team has been on a PHENOMENAL run, and last week against DePauw was electric watching both those offenses work. But if there's any offense that can outpace the Thunder it resides in River Falls, Wisconsin with the Falcons. Blaha and company have continued to step up to the occasion and leave no doubt, so in potentially the coldest game of the year I'm taking UW-RF to advance. UW-River Falls 35, Wheaton 21

Mike's take: This appears to be one of the coldest D3 football game ever played. That generally equalizes things and I believe that is to Wheaton‘s advantage. Last week, Kaleb Blaha carried the ball 26 times for UWRF, if the passing game is difficult in this weather, I trust his running ability and UWRF‘s overall running game more than I trust Wheaton’s. 
UW-River Falls 42, Wheaton 24 

Greg's take: After starting 2-2, Susquehanna has got themselves right- especially defensively- and all that stands between the River Hawks and a return trip to the semifinals is another 2024 semifinalist and a team they lost to in September. Johns Hopkins, of course, has faced down playoff caliber opposition nearly every week- including going 2-0 this season against teams in the final 8. The Blue Jays are as competition-hardened as anybody in the field. I’m a believer in Susquehanna’s turnaround- Josh Ehrlich is making plays in big moments, the Susquehanna defense is causing havoc and I think they’ll be a different challenge for JHU this time around. I expect something closer to the top-5 matchup we expected in September, and with a different outcome.
Susquehanna 25, Johns Hopkins 24

Pat's take: Susquehanna has already successfully won a return game in these playoffs by defeating Christopher Newport in the second round, but I don't see the outcome being too different the second time around. Big credit given to the Susquehanna defense for pitching the shutout last week, but this is a different challenge. They may not give up the 40 points ... well, 38, technically ... that they gave up against Johns Hopkins in September, but also, that 40-22 game was 33-7 at the halfway point of the fourth quarter. Johns Hopkins 35, Susquehanna 21

Keith's take: Susquehanna is one of two remaining teams that played in the Round of 40, and had already avenged a 14-point early-season loss to CNU with a 14-point playoff win. Now it gets a second crack at Johns Hopkins, a 40-22 winner on Sept. 20. This is a matchup of both losing semifinalists from last season that also matches Gagliardi Trophy semifinalist QBs Josh Ehrlich and Bay Harvey. Both teams have been scoring a ton of late, and will give up some points too. Hopkins has played a relentlessly competitive schedule and has already beaten two of the final eight (including John Carroll as well) by multiple scores. I haven't seen any reason to believe the Blue Jays can be stopped -- look for a lot of Cole Crotty completions over the middle on Saturday. But it'll be whoever plays the best defense that moves on. 
Johns Hopkins 38, Susquehanna 24

Logan's take: Susquehanna has not been playing like the same team that lost to JHU in September (they've been playing considerably better), but will they, or will Rashahn La Mons, be able to play at the same level as they did two weeks ago when they avenged their other September loss? Johns Hopkins, meanwhile, has made their loss to F&M look like a complete blip with their playoff performances. Bay Harvey and Cole Crotty get the headlines, but their defense last week thoroughly shut down a Salisbury offense that had been unstoppable all year.
Johns Hopkins 35, Susquehanna 24

Riley's take: Playoff rematches have been sometimes known to spell danger for the regular season victor. Christopher Newport found that out against this same Susquehanna team two weeks ago. Johns Hopkins also beat Susquehanna during the regular season, and gets a red-hot River Hawks squad looking for revenge on Saturday. But the Blue Jays are on a roll themselves, coming off a 45-13 win over Salisbury, and are playing at home for the third Saturday in a row. Having allowed just 13.5 points per game in playoff wins over Springfield and Salisbury, the defense looks sharper than ever. Bolstered a strong showing on that side of the ball, Bay Harvey and the Blue Jay offense will do the rest, pulling away in the second half.
Johns Hopkins, 27, Susquehanna, 14

Carlo's take: A rematch between two of the most well-coached, high-IQ programs in the region. Hopkins’ precision passing game meets Susquehanna’s balanced, efficient attack in what could become a chess match of adjustments. Turnovers and red zone execution may end up deciding the entire day.
Johns Hopkins 28, Susquehanna 21

Kobe's take: A rematch- but one removed by more than 80 days for these teams that have certainly both looked impressive down the stretch. Two of the most talented offensive backfields in the country go head-to-head with guys like Ehrlich & La Mons vs. Harvey & Schroeder. The River Hawks have already avenged their other regular season loss to CNU, but I don't think they have enough to topple the Blue Jays and a ground game that put Salisbury on the wrong side of a lopsided time of possession battle a week ago. Johns Hopkins 35, Susquehanna 17

Mike's take: JHU has played two of their best games of the season in the last two weeks following that regular season loss to F&M. I believe they will keep that trend going in this one, but the game will be much tighter than the 40-22 score we saw earlier this season. 
Johns Hopkins 31, Susquehanna 21